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Broadcom FY25Q3 Earnings Review: Software and Non-AI Stay Weak, but FY26 AI Revenue Is Set to Accelerate

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Broadcom FY25Q3 covers May/June/July 2025 results.

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Broadcom FY25Q3 Results:

  • Revenue reached a record $15.952B, up 22% year over year and 6% sequentially.

  • GAAP gross margin 67%, up 3.2 points year over year, down 0.9 points sequentially. Operating margin 37%, up 7.9 points year over year, down 1.9 points sequentially. Non-GAAP operating margin 53%, up 5.9 points year over year, up 0.8 points sequentially.

  • GAAP net income $4.14B, up 95% year over year. Non-GAAP net income $8.404B, up 56% year over year. Non-GAAP net margin 53% (vs 52% last quarter).

  • No share repurchases this quarter; $2.8B in dividends. Gross principal debt $66.3B.

  • Hock Tan to remain CEO, term through at least 2030.

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By business, FQ3:

  • Semiconductor revenue $9.166B, up 26% year over year, 57% of revenue. Semiconductor gross margin 67%, down 0.3 points year over year, down nearly 2 points sequentially. Operating margin 57%, up 1.3 points year over year.

  • Software revenue $6.786B, up 17% year over year, slowest growth since VMware acquisition, 43% of revenue. Software gross margin 93%, operating margin 77%. Total contract value (TCV) signed this quarter exceeded $8.4B. VMware has 300K customers; over 90% of top 10,000 customers subscribe to full-stack VCF (up from 87% last quarter). FQ4 software revenue guided at $6.7B, up 15% year over year, growth continuing to decelerate. (Note: VMware revenue scale no longer disclosed since FY25Q1.)

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Semiconductor detail, FQ3: (Note: since FY25Q1, only semiconductor AI vs non-AI disclosed, not individual business lines.)

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  • Semiconductor AI revenue $5.2B, up 63% year over year and 18% sequentially, slightly above prior guidance of $5.1B, accounting for 57% of semiconductor revenue. Of this, custom AI chip revenue $3.38B; Ethernet-based AI networking chip revenue $1.82B (NVIDIA's AI networking chip revenue this quarter was $7.25B, shipped primarily as server systems; Broadcom sells in chip form). AI networking vs custom AI chip revenue split 35%/65%; AI networking share expected to continue declining.

  • Semiconductor non-AI revenue $4.0B, flat year over year. Management says non-AI semiconductor demand recovery remains slow. While broadband posted strong sequential growth, enterprise networking and server storage declined sequentially; wireless and industrial were flat sequentially. FQ4 non-AI semiconductor revenue expected to grow low-double-digits sequentially to ~$4.6B driven by seasonality, with broadband, server storage, and wireless (iPhone 17 series) improving, while enterprise networking continues to decline sequentially. Management says meaningful recovery may not appear until mid-to-late 2026.

  • Broadcom's custom AI chip exposure is concentrated in three hyperscalers (Google, Meta, ByteDance). FY25Q1 announced four new partners (OpenAI, rumored Apple, etc.). This quarter announced landing the fourth customer (OpenAI) with a $10B deal, expected to begin delivery in FY26Q3.

  • FY25Q4 semiconductor AI revenue guided at $6.2B, up 66% year over year and 19% sequentially. Non-AI semiconductor revenue guided at $4.5B, up slightly year over year. Management says with the fourth customer's $10B deal, FY26 AI revenue growth will exceed FY25 (>60%), implying FY26 AI revenue near $34B.

  • Total backlog $110B, with semiconductor business >50%, and AI > non-AI within semiconductor.

  • Company XPU does not address enterprise AI market; focused solely on frontier LLM market.

Outlook:

  • FY25 Q4 revenue guided at $17.4B, up 24% year over year. Semiconductor revenue $10.7B, up 30% year over year, of which AI $6.2B (up 66%), non-AI $4.5B (up slightly). Software revenue $6.7B, up 15%. Gross margin 66.4%, down 0.7 points sequentially, mainly due to higher custom chip and wireless mix. Adjusted EBITDA $11.7B.

Overall, strictly from the numbers, Broadcom's report was mediocre (still falls short of NVIDIA, but market expectations for Broadcom were too low). AI revenue beat guidance only modestly; next-quarter AI guidance slightly above expectations. The key confidence boost came from Hock Tan announcing the fourth customer's $10B deal driving FY26 high growth. Over the past year many investors unwilling to accept NVIDIA dominance rotated into AMD, Broadcom, even Marvell; currently crowding into Broadcom and Google is common. Given cloud is the highest-ROI AI monetization venue, the cloud AI capex pie is large enough, and enterprise/sovereign AI are just starting, leaving ample growth runway for all.

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Incorporating the FY26 AI revenue details from this earnings call, we optimistically raise FY26 revenue to ~$85B. At a non-GAAP net margin of 53%, that implies $45B net income. At 30x PE, that corresponds to a $1.35T market cap.

Previous Earnings Reviews (Newest First):

Originally published on the WeChat public account Eric有话说.